When winter strikes, home searches rise. For
every ten-degree drop in temperature, searches increase by 2.6% nationally,
4.4% for homes in warm regions, and 5.5% for homes in warm vacation areas.
Brrr. It’s cold outside – still.
Winter has been rough for much of the United States, with temperatures
plummeting far below normal. We analyzed search traffic on Trulia between
December 1, 2013, and January 21, 2014, to see how daily temperature
fluctuations affected home-search patterns (see note below). It’s clear as a
bone-chilling winter morning: when the cold wind blows, home searches increase
– especially for homes in warmer parts of the country.
Searching for Warmth When the
Mercury Drops
Nationally, home searches increased by 2.6% overall for every 10 degrees Fahrenheit the temperature dropped. Why? In part because cold weather keeps people inside where they do more indoor activities, including searching for real estate online. But cold weather doesn't simply cause people to do more of everything to an equal degree. When temperatures plummet, searches for homes within the searcher’s own metro rise 2.2%, while searches for homes outside the searcher’s own metro rise 2.9%.
Nationally, home searches increased by 2.6% overall for every 10 degrees Fahrenheit the temperature dropped. Why? In part because cold weather keeps people inside where they do more indoor activities, including searching for real estate online. But cold weather doesn't simply cause people to do more of everything to an equal degree. When temperatures plummet, searches for homes within the searcher’s own metro rise 2.2%, while searches for homes outside the searcher’s own metro rise 2.9%.
And the colder it gets, the better
warm looks. For every 10-degree temperature drop that occurs where a house
hunter resides, we see a 4.4% increase in searches for homes in warm regions,
which is bigger than the increase in searches overall. While some of this
searching might reflect the desire to move to a warmer place and leave winter
behind permanently, the increase in searches for homes in sunny vacation spots is even higher: a 5.5% jump for
every 10-degree temperature decline. In other words, searches for homes in warm
vacation destinations increase more than twice as much as home searches
overall.
National
Search Patterns When the Temperature Drops
|
|
Searches
for homes in:
|
Increase
in searches for each 10-degree drop where the searcher is
|
U.S.
overall
|
2.6%
|
Within
searcher’s own metro
|
2.2%
|
Outside
searcher’s own metro
|
2.9%
|
Outside
searcher’s own metro, warm regions only
|
4.4%
|
Outside
searcher’s own metro, warm vacation areas
only
|
5.5%
|
Based
on searches by people in the colder regions of the country.
|
Honey, I’m Freezing. Let’s Move
to Miami.
Breaking these search patterns down further, we can see which metro’s homes get the biggest search boost when winter weather strike, Miami benefits most, with a 7.3% climb in searches for every 10-degree temperature drop in wintry regions, followed by Phoenix and Jacksonville. And among the 10 metros that get the biggest rise in searches when temperatures plunge, only one – Dayton, OH – is outside the South and West.
Breaking these search patterns down further, we can see which metro’s homes get the biggest search boost when winter weather strike, Miami benefits most, with a 7.3% climb in searches for every 10-degree temperature drop in wintry regions, followed by Phoenix and Jacksonville. And among the 10 metros that get the biggest rise in searches when temperatures plunge, only one – Dayton, OH – is outside the South and West.
Metros
Where Searches Rise the Most When Winter Strikes
|
||
#
|
U.S.
Metro of homes searched
|
Increase
in searches for each 10-degree drop where the searcher is
|
1
|
7.3%
|
|
2
|
6.9%
|
|
3
|
6.4%
|
|
4
|
6.4%
|
|
5
|
6.4%
|
|
6
|
6.3%
|
|
7
|
6.2%
|
|
8
|
6.2%
|
|
9
|
6.1%
|
|
10
|
6.1%
|
|
Among
100 largest metros. Based on searches by people in the colder regions of the
country. Excludes within-metro searches.
|
On Second Thought, I Do Love
the Summer at Home. Let’s Be Snowbirds.
The table above showed that, in cold weather, searches to warm vacation areas jumped even more than searches to warm places in general. But you don’t need to move to Florida to avoid winter – you just need a second home there. For our analysis of vacation areas, we identified ZIP codes where vacation homes account for at least 25% of the housing stock, according to the Census, and grouped them together within each county to define vacation areas. (Vacation areas where search traffic jumped most include several beach towns in Florida. But when winter hits hard, the number one vacation spot where searches increased was Deschutes County, OR, near Bend; searches for homes there jumped 9.1% for every 10-degree drop in temperature elsewhere.
The table above showed that, in cold weather, searches to warm vacation areas jumped even more than searches to warm places in general. But you don’t need to move to Florida to avoid winter – you just need a second home there. For our analysis of vacation areas, we identified ZIP codes where vacation homes account for at least 25% of the housing stock, according to the Census, and grouped them together within each county to define vacation areas. (Vacation areas where search traffic jumped most include several beach towns in Florida. But when winter hits hard, the number one vacation spot where searches increased was Deschutes County, OR, near Bend; searches for homes there jumped 9.1% for every 10-degree drop in temperature elsewhere.
Vacation
Areas Where Searches Rise the Most When Winter Strikes
|
|||
#
|
County
|
Main
vacation towns or areas
|
Increase
in searches for each 10-degree drop where the searcher is
|
1
|
Deschutes,
OR
|
9.1%
|
|
2
|
Brunswick,
NC
|
7.9%
|
|
3
|
Placer,
CA
|
7.2%
|
|
4
|
Pinellas,
FL
|
7.2%
|
|
5
|
Osceola,
FL
|
7.1%
|
|
6
|
Bay,
FL
|
7.0%
|
|
7
|
Watauga,
NC
|
6.9%
|
|
8
|
Ocean,
NJ
|
6.7%
|
|
9
|
Broward,
FL
|
6.6%
|
|
10
|
Collier,
FL
|
6.4%
|
|
Among
top 50 counties with the most vacation homes. Based on searches by people in
the colder regions of the country. Excludes within-metro searches.
|
As January comes to an end, temperatures are once again dropping
in much of the country. Try to stay warm: bundle up, sip hot chocolate, and
look at homes in Miami and Phoenix.
Note: this post is based on web
searches on Trulia between December 1, 2013, and January 21, 2014. Data on
daily high temperatures come from the National Climatic Data Center. We excluded
searches by people in regions with warm winter climates, which include much of
the South, Southwest, and California. This is based on regression analysis of
daily searches by people in a metro to homes in regions, metros, or counties,
and the explanatory variable is daily high temperature in the searcher’s metro;
we included fixed effects for the searcher’s metro and for the day of week, as
well as a quadratic time trend. All of the reported percentages are
statistically significant at the 5% level.
by Jed Kolko, Chief
Economist – Trulia.com